The 2010 Hurricane Season

Wow, surfing sure is a sport of the elements here along the xtl-coast (crystal coast). The right storm, at the right location, for the right amount of time, blowing along the right distance of water, at the right tide, and the right local wind all have to come together for a truly epic session – sometimes you feel like you have a better chance of seeing the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy on the same day. And while water and air temps don’t usually make or break a session (good waves = go surfing regardless); it’s been a wacky year. After arctic air and record cold water temperatures this winter that seemed to never want to go over 50 degrees, we just crossed the 80 degree water temperature threshold in mid June, which we usually don’t see until a week into July. Warm bathwater already…crazy...

And speaking of the elements, just about all the pieces are in place for a good, or at least active, hurricane season. Why you may ask?

Number 1 - Most experts agree the Atlantic Ocean basin continues to be in the middle of a heightened trend of tropical cyclone activity compliments of cyclical ocean-atmosphere interactions. This may be coupled with possible impacts from warming climate and seas (there’s still a lot of debate on this). This is more of the long-range environmental scenario.

Number 2 - In the more short term; sea surface temperatures are currently at record levels in the equatorial Atlantic. This (warm water) is often considered as the “fuel” of a cyclone, so we should see lots of counterclockwise buzzsaw-shaped cyclones (which are tropical storms and hurricanes) develop this year. So will these swell-producing rascals stay intact?

Number 3 - The answer appears to be “yes”. The masculine El Niño is waning in the Pacific and could transition into the feminine La Niña soon. Without getting into inordinate detail, El Niño equates to warm water in the Pacific, creating higher than average wind shear in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico (GoMex) atmosphere. As you may have guessed by now, La Niña is the opposite – cold Pacific water producing atmospheric conditions more conducive for tropical cyclone development/survival for us here in the Atlantic and GoMex.

So for 2010, we appear to have the fuel necessary for cyclones and nothing on a grand scale to suppress the cyclones once they form. Lots of wind, lots of open water, and lots of surf – sounds good. But where will all of the buzzsaws be heading?

Straight for us? Sure hope not – that is no fun and not worth a single wave we would receive in advance. Between the U.S. and Bermuda? Like that scenario – right in our wheelhouse. Will most of the cyclones stay south and keep traveling west either just north of the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico, or further south? Who knows really - landfall probabilities and cyclone paths are dependent on short-term factors such as interactions with other weather systems coming across the U.S. and fluctuating steering patterns (i.e., the Bermuda High). So stay alert – stay safe – and safe travels if that’s what is warranted from time to time this year to catch surf. Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. Enjoy.

See you in the water until next time – www.eisurfshop.com.